Learn
Prediction markets, explained.
Guides to Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig: how prediction markets work, how prices and resolution work, and how to research a market before you trade.
Guides
How to research and size prediction market trades.
Prediction market basics
What prediction markets are, how prices work and how markets resolve.
How Prediction Market Prices Work
A prediction market price is an implied probability. See a worked example, then how the spread, fees, and thin books change what the number means.
9 min read
How Prediction Markets Resolve
Resolution is the rules, the source, and who decides. Compare Kalshi, Polymarket US, and the UMA oracle used on the international Polymarket site.
9 min read
What Are Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are exchanges where prices are probabilities. Learn how event contracts work, who regulates them, and how they differ from a sportsbook.
8 min read
Kalshi
How Kalshi works: contracts, fees, payouts and regulation.
Polymarket
How Polymarket works: markets, resolution, fees and access.
Novig
How Novig works and how it compares to other prediction markets.
Comparisons
Side-by-side looks at prediction market platforms.