Prediction Market Odds Calculator
Enter a Kalshi or Polymarket price and your stake to see contracts, payout, profit and break-even probability. Add your own odds to see expected value.
Math only, not a prediction. Research, not financial advice.
Enter a price and stake to see contracts, payout, profit and break-even.
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How the odds calculator works
A prediction market contract pays $1.00 if it resolves your way and $0 if it doesn't. The price you pay is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ Yes contract means traders collectively put Yes at about 60%. This prediction market calculator turns that price and your stake into the numbers that matter.
round down: stake ÷ pricecontracts × pricestake − costcontracts × $1.00payout − cost − feesprice paid (60¢ → 60%)price in ¢ = %p × profit − (1 − p) × costWorked example
$1,000 on each side of a market trading at 60¢ Yes / 40¢ No, before fees. Contracts are bought whole, so any cash too small for one more contract is left over. Return is measured on cost.
| Yes at 60¢ | No at 40¢ | |
|---|---|---|
| Contracts | 1,666 | 2,500 |
| Cost | $999.60 | $1,000.00 |
| Leftover cash | $0.40 | $0.00 |
| Payout if right | $1,666.00 | $2,500.00 |
| Profit if right | +$666.40 | +$1,500.00 |
| Return on cost | 66.7% | 150.0% |
| Loss if wrong | −$999.60 | −$1,000.00 |
| Break-even | 60% | 40% |
Prediction market calculator FAQ
▸▾If I buy at 60 cents, how much can I make?
Contracts are bought whole, so $1,000 at 60¢ buys 1,666 contracts for $999.60, with $0.40 left over. Each pays $1.00 if it resolves your way: $1,666.00 if Yes, a $666.40 profit (66.7% on cost). If No resolves, you lose the $999.60.
▸▾How do I calculate payout on a Kalshi contract?
Kalshi sells whole contracts, so divide your stake by the price and round down: $1,000 at 60¢ is 1,666 contracts, costing $999.60 with $0.40 left over. Multiply contracts by $1.00 for the payout: $1,666.00 before fees. The calculator does this rounding for you and shows the leftover cash.
▸▾How much profit does Polymarket pay if Yes resolves?
Each Yes share pays $1.00 if Yes wins, so profit is payout minus what you paid, minus any fees. Using whole shares, $1,000 at 60¢ buys 1,666 shares for $999.60 and returns $666.40 in profit if Yes resolves.
▸▾What is the break-even probability in a prediction market?
It's the price you pay, plus fees. Buying Yes at 60¢ means Yes has to happen more than 60% of the time for the trade to pay off over many similar bets.
▸▾What is the expected value of an event contract?
EV = your probability × profit − (1 − your probability) × cost. If you think Yes is 70% likely, 1,666 contracts at 60¢ have an EV of 0.70 × $666.40 − 0.30 × $999.60 = +$166.60. EV is only as good as your probability estimate.
▸▾Is this an implied probability calculator?
Yes. A prediction market price in cents is the market's implied probability in percent: 60¢ means about 60%. Enter a price in ¢ or % and the calculator treats them the same.
▸▾Does the calculator include fees?
Only if you add them. Fees differ by platform and change over time, so we don't assume a number. Enter your total fees in the optional field to see profit and break-even after fees.
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